What Is the Risk-to-Reward Ratio?
It is the relationship between what you stand to lose if price hits your stop-loss and what you stand to gain if it reaches your take-profit. A 1:2 ratio means you are risking $1 to make $2.
Break-Even Win Rate
Break-even rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R). With a 1:2 ratio, you only need to win 33.3% of your trades to break even, whereas a 1:1 ratio requires 50%.
Mathematical Expectancy
Expectancy per trade = (Win Rate × R) − (Loss Rate × 1). If positive, the strategy is mathematically profitable over the long run, provided your win rate and execution remain consistent.
Common Mistakes
- Setting an unrealistically distant target just to artificially improve the ratio.
- Overlooking how spreads and commissions reduce net returns.
- Judging a strategy based on too small a sample of trades.